The Weekly Market Rundown with OTIQ

July 20, 2025

Market Performance

Equity markets delivered a mixed performance this week, with the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) reaching fresh all-time highs, while the Dow Jones (DIA) traded flat. The Russell 2000 (IWM) rebounded, hinting at a modest return of risk appetite. Gold, however, lagged amid shifting macro sentiment. Markets briefly wavered amid reports that President Trump may seek to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, alongside renewed tariff threats targeting Canadian and European imports. However, markets climbed on the back of strong corporate earnings and resilient consumer data. 3M (MMM), JPMorgan (JPM), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) reported solid earnings, reinforcing optimism in the industrials and financial sectors.

Two legislative developments also captured investors’ attention this week: The GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act. Both aim to bring greater clarity and stability to the evolving digital asset landscape by establishing a broader regulatory framework for all types of digital assets.

Sector Performance

This past week, markets reflected notable sector rotation as traders responded to strong earnings, macro crosscurrents, and rising political uncertainty. Technology (XLK) led with a 1.97% gain, extending its leadership on AI and chip demand. Utilities (XLU) rose 1.58%, signaling a possible defensive bid. Industrials (XLI) added 0.84%, supported by steady factory output, while Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) posted modest gains on strong bank earnings and rate-cut expectations. Discretionary (XLY), Staples (XLP), and Communication Services (XLC) were flat to mildly positive, reflecting a cautious but stable tone in sentiment.

Energy (XLE) was the week’s biggest laggard, down 3.56%, despite rising oil prices, possibly due to profit-taking or margin concerns. Healthcare (XLV) fell 2.48%, likely weighed by policy risks and rotation, while Materials (XLB) slipped 1.42% amid tariff concerns and commodity cost pressures.

With only a few sectors meaningfully outperforming, breadth appears to be narrowing. Momentum trades may continue to favor tech, while defensives like utilities and real estate could attract inflows if macro risk intensifies. Meanwhile, lagging sectors such as energy and healthcare may offer contrarian setups or low-cost directional opportunities.

Market Breadth & Volatility

Market breadth dipped briefly below 65% early in the week before rebounding toward 70% by week's end. While the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average remains elevated, momentum is stalling near resistance. Watch 55% as key support; a breakout above 70% could signal renewed strength, while a drop below 55% may point to a broader pullback.

Volatility is subdued, with the VIX in the mid-16s, which is favorable for directional trades and premium selling. Despite tariffs and macro concerns, implied volatility is stable, and the VIX futures remain in contango, indicating expectations of continued low volatility.

Pre-Market Report

Markets enter this week with the S&P 500 digesting the implications of last week's banking earnings and inflation data while preparing for another wave of high-profile quarterly results and critical Fed commentary. The week features a diverse earnings lineup spanning telecommunications, automotive, technology, and materials sectors, providing a comprehensive view of corporate America's health amid ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Tuesday speech at 8:30am takes center stage as investors seek clarity on monetary policy direction following recent economic data and the central bank's assessment of current conditions. Housing market data Wednesday and Thursday will offer crucial insights into residential real estate trends, while manufacturing and services PMI readings Thursday provide a timely pulse check on business activity across major economic sectors.

Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.

Mega-Cap Tech Earnings

Wednesday brings a blockbuster day for technology earnings with Tesla and Alphabet reporting results that could significantly influence market direction. Tesla's quarterly results will be closely scrutinized for delivery trends, margin performance, and progress on autonomous driving initiatives amid ongoing competitive pressures and the recent elimination of U.S. EV credits. Management commentary on the Optimus robot program, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage business will be particularly important for assessing the company's diversification beyond automotive. Alphabet's results will provide insights into search advertising trends, cloud computing growth, and AI investments as the company navigates an evolving competitive landscape. YouTube's performance, Google Cloud's momentum against rivals, and capital expenditure plans for AI infrastructure will be key focus areas. Thursday's Intel earnings will offer perspective on the semiconductor industry's health and the company's turnaround efforts in an increasingly competitive chip market.

Powell's Policy Perspective

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Tuesday speech at 8:30am represents the week's most significant monetary policy event, coming as markets continue to assess the central bank's next moves amid mixed economic signals. Powell's commentary will be closely analyzed for insights into the Fed's thinking about current interest rate levels, inflation progress, and labor market conditions. His remarks could provide important guidance on the timing and pace of potential policy adjustments, particularly given recent tariff announcements and their potential inflationary impact. The speech timing, early in the trading day, creates potential for immediate market reactions across rate-sensitive sectors including technology, utilities, and financials. Powell's assessment of economic resilience in the face of trade policy changes and his view on the balance between growth and inflation risks could significantly influence market expectations for the remainder of 2025.

Housing Market Health Check

Wednesday and Thursday deliver back-to-back housing market assessments with existing home sales at 10am Wednesday followed by new home sales at 10am Thursday. These reports will provide crucial insights into residential real estate activity amid elevated mortgage rates and ongoing economic uncertainties. Existing home sales data will reflect completed transactions and offer perspective on buyer behavior in the current interest rate environment. Thursday's new home sales figures will gauge demand for newly constructed properties, particularly important for assessing builder confidence and future construction activity. Housing inventory levels, median prices, and regional variations will be closely watched for signs of market stabilization or continued pressure. The housing data takes on added significance given its traditional role as a leading economic indicator and its sensitivity to both interest rates and consumer confidence.

Industrial and Consumer Bellwethers

The week features several key earnings that will provide insights into different sectors of the economy. General Motors Tuesday will offer perspective on automotive demand, supply chain conditions, and the transition to electric vehicles amid changing government incentives. Coca-Cola Tuesday will provide insights into global consumer trends and pricing power in beverages. Chipotle Wednesday will offer perspective on restaurant industry health and consumer discretionary spending patterns. Freeport-McMoRan Wednesday will provide insights into copper and precious metals demand, particularly important given infrastructure spending and green energy trends. IBM Wednesday will offer perspective on enterprise technology spending and cloud computing adoption.

Business Activity Assessment

Thursday's dual PMI readings at 9:45am will provide a comprehensive view of business conditions across manufacturing and services sectors, offering timely insights into economic momentum. The Manufacturing PMI will be particularly important given ongoing trade tensions and supply chain considerations, while the Services PMI will offer perspective on the largest component of the U.S. economy. These readings will complement Friday's durable goods orders data at 8:30am, which will provide insights into business investment trends and capital expenditure patterns. The convergence of business sentiment surveys and hard economic data creates potential for significant market reactions if the reports collectively suggest strengthening or weakening economic conditions. Thursday's initial jobless claims will add another data point on labor market health, rounding out a comprehensive week of economic indicators that could influence Fed policy expectations and sector rotation patterns.

Trader Mindset Going Into the Week

Markets continue to edge higher, but signs of sector rotation and narrowing breadth suggest a more tactical environment developing beneath the surface. Technology remains in leadership mode, yet defensive sectors like utilities and real estate have started to attract inflows, highlighting a subtle shift in risk appetite. Meanwhile, lagging performance in energy, healthcare, and materials reflects growing sensitivity to macro headlines, including tariff escalation and policy uncertainty.

Volatility remains contained, indicating a lack of immediate downside concern. However, softening participation and political noise are a reminder to stay nimble. Traders should prioritize selective setups, tightened risk parameters, and be mindful of earnings reactions and macro catalysts that could shift sentiment quickly.

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